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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Baltika and Lokomotiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 5, as Baltika and Lokomotiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.52 xG and Lokomotiv 1.90 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lokomotiv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 1.05 / defence 1.24 against Lokomotiv attack 1.29 / defence 1.02, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baltika 30% | Draw 25% | Lokomotiv 45%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 50%, Lokomotiv 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baltika's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Lokomotiv's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lokomotiv arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baltika managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Lokomotiv managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights