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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Baltika cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dinamo Makhachkala.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baltika beat Dinamo Makhachkala 2-0 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.14 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.65 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Baltika beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.71 / defence 0.85 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.63 / defence 1.07, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baltika 45% | Draw 36% | Dinamo Makhachkala 19%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 15% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 20%, Dinamo Makhachkala 10%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baltika's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baltika (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights