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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Akron and Zenit share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akron and Zenit finished level at 1-1 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 0.94 xG and Zenit 1.49 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.85 / defence 1.20 against Zenit attack 1.04 / defence 0.75, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akron 21% | Draw 31% | Zenit 48%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 62%, Zenit 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akron's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Zenit's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Akron (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights