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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Akron and Spartak Moscow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 3, as Akron and Spartak Moscow drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.18 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.43 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Akron 30% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 41%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 62%, Spartak Moscow 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akron's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Akron (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights