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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Spartak Moscow edge out Akron 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Spartak Moscow beat Akron 2-3 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 0.92 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.69 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Akron beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spartak Moscow outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.86 / defence 1.33 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.17 / defence 0.71, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akron 18% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 53%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 58%, Spartak Moscow 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akron's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Akron (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights