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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Akron and Rubin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 9, as Akron and Rubin drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.48 xG and Rubin 1.59 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.80 / defence 1.15 against Rubin attack 1.14 / defence 1.25, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akron 34% | Draw 28% | Rubin 38%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 60%, Rubin 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akron's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Rubin's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights