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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Akron edge out FC Sochi 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akron beat FC Sochi 3-2 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.77 xG and FC Sochi 1.21 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Akron beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against FC Sochi attack 0.96 / defence 1.44, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akron 49% | Draw 27% | FC Sochi 24%, with Akron to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 53%, FC Sochi 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akron's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sochi's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Akron arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Akron (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. FC Sochi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights