🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as FC Orenburg defy the odds to beat Akron 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Orenburg beat Akron 1-2 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.71 xG and FC Orenburg 1.31 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against FC Orenburg attack 1.03 / defence 1.29, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akron 45% | Draw 28% | FC Orenburg 27%, with Akron to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual FC Orenburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 59%, FC Orenburg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akron's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

FC Orenburg's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Akron arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with FC Orenburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Orenburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights