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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Akron and Krylia Sovetov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akron and Krylia Sovetov finished level at 1-1 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.80 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.47 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 1.01 / defence 1.25 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.07 / defence 1.14, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akron 43% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 30%, with Akron to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 63%, Krylia Sovetov 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akron's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Akron 1.17 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Akron (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights