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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Akron edge out Fakel 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akron beat Fakel 1-0 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.73 xG and Fakel 1.07 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fakel landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.93 / defence 1.46 against Fakel attack 0.69 / defence 1.26, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akron 50% | Draw 30% | Fakel 20%, with Akron to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 60%, Fakel 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akron's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Fakel's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Akron arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Akron (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line. Fakel (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights