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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as CSKA Moscow defy the odds to beat Akron 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow beat Akron 1-2 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.24 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.98 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. CSKA Moscow outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.89 / defence 1.16 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.87 / defence 0.86, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akron 42% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 29%, with Akron to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual CSKA Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 58%, CSKA Moscow 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akron's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights