Akron 1-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akron at 42%, yet the head-to-head data favours CSKA Moscow — this Akron vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Akron welcome CSKA Moscow to Samara Arena in Premier League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 4 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Akron — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Akron's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, CSKA Moscow have recorded 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
CSKA Moscow's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Akron at 1.10 PPG versus CSKA Moscow's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, CSKA Moscow have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Akron. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Akron 1–3 CSKA Moscow — a CSKA Moscow win.
The H2H data backs the away side. CSKA Moscow have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Akron in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akron 58% versus CSKA Moscow 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akron 58% | CSKA Moscow 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akron 1.24 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akron attack 0.889 / defence 1.155 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.866 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 0.977. Data: built from Akron's last 52 games and CSKA Moscow's last 52.
Result probabilities: Akron 42% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 29%. Fair-value odds: Akron 2.36 | Draw 3.49 | CSKA Moscow 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Akron at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akron offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Akron 90% (last 10 home games) | CSKA Moscow 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akron vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akron 42% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Akron 1.24 / CSKA Moscow 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Akron attack 0.889 / def 1.155 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.866 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.621 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Akron (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Akron xG
Expected Goals
0.98
CSKA Moscow xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Akron vs CSKA Moscow FAQs
What time does Akron vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Akron vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Akron vs CSKA Moscow?
Akron 1 - 2 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Akron vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Akron vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Akron vs CSKA Moscow is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akron vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Akron a 42% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Akron the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akron vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Akron and CSKA Moscow will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Akron vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Akron's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against CSKA Moscow's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Akron's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Akron's last 52 games and CSKA Moscow's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akron Win
42%
2.36
29%
3.49
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Akron xG
Total xG
2.22
0.98
CSKA Moscow xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
8%
11.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Akron vs CSKA Moscow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Akron vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Akron and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Akron and 0.98 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Akron vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Akron's recent record stands at 15W 12D 25L from 52 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 29W 11D 12L across 52 games — 1.88 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akron heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Akron have managed 7W 7D 11L from their last 25 home games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 12W 6D 7L across their last 25 away games, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Akron are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.56 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akron
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Akron (Home) vs CSKA Moscow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Akron
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Akron vs CSKA Moscow Form FAQs
What form are Akron and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Akron have gone 15W 12D 25L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 29W 11D 12L in their last 52 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akron at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akron at home: 1.12 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Akron or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akron have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Aug 2024, when CSKA Moscow won CSKA Moscow 4-0 Akron.
Akron's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Akron
1
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Akron vs CSKA Moscow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Akron and CSKA Moscow?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Akron have won 0, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Akron and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Akron 2-2 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Akron and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 70% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akron 68%, CSKA Moscow 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Akron) and 44% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 32%; CSKA Moscow in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akron home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Akron vs CSKA Moscow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Akron and CSKA Moscow matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Akron's games and 48% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Akron and CSKA Moscow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Akron's recent games and 44% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akron and CSKA Moscow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Akron's recent matches and 76% of CSKA Moscow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as CSKA Moscow defy the odds to beat Akron 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Akron 1-2 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.24 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.98 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. CSKA Moscow outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.89 / defence 1.16 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.87 / defence 0.86, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akron 42% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 29%, with Akron to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual CSKA Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 58%, CSKA Moscow 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akron's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.