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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Sochi cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Akhmat.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sochi beat Akhmat 2-4 at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 2.02 xG and FC Sochi 0.63 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. FC Sochi outscored their 0.63 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 1.09 / defence 0.82 against FC Sochi attack 0.66 / defence 1.33, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akhmat 69% | Draw 22% | FC Sochi 9%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a FC Sochi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 50%, FC Sochi 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akhmat's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sochi's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Akhmat arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with FC Sochi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Akhmat (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sochi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights