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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Akhmat cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nizhny Novgorod.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akhmat beat Nizhny Novgorod 2-0 at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.66 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 0.87 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.90 / defence 0.87 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.94 / defence 1.36, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akhmat 56% | Draw 24% | Nizhny Novgorod 20%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 44%, Nizhny Novgorod 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akhmat's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.02 PPG, Nizhny Novgorod 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights