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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Akhmat cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Krylia Sovetov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akhmat beat Krylia Sovetov 3-1 at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.16 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.36 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Akhmat beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.77 / defence 0.91 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.26 / defence 1.05, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akhmat 29% | Draw 31% | Krylia Sovetov 39%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Akhmat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 44%, Krylia Sovetov 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akhmat's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Akhmat 0.85 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights