🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Akhmat edge out FC Rostov 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akhmat beat FC Rostov 1-0 at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.34 xG and FC Rostov 0.90 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Rostov landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against FC Rostov attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akhmat 47% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 25%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 47%, FC Rostov 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akhmat's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Rostov's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.04 PPG, FC Rostov 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights