Akhmat 1-0 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Akhmat at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Akhmat face FC Rostov.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Akhmat-Arena plays host to Akhmat versus FC Rostov in Premier League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 10:45 UK time.
Form
Akhmat (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Akhmat's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Akhmat are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC Rostov's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
FC Rostov away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Akhmat against 0.90 for FC Rostov. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Akhmat, 3 for FC Rostov and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Akhmat 1–1 FC Rostov — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Rostov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 57% versus FC Rostov 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 47% | FC Rostov 39%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Akhmat surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while FC Rostov have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.34 xG and FC Rostov 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.950 / defence 0.960 | FC Rostov attack 0.940 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 0.993. Data: built from Akhmat's last 51 games and FC Rostov's last 51.
Result probabilities: Akhmat 47% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 25%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | FC Rostov 3.98. Akhmat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Akhmat at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Akhmat if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Akhmat 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Rostov 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 22 | Venue: Akhmat-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 10:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 47% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Akhmat 1.34 / FC Rostov 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.950 / def 0.960 | FC Rostov attack 0.940 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.548 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
0.90
FC Rostov xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Akhmat vs FC Rostov FAQs
What time does Akhmat vs FC Rostov kick off?
Akhmat vs FC Rostov kicked off at 10:45 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Akhmat-Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs FC Rostov?
Akhmat 1 - 0 FC Rostov.
Where is Akhmat vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat-Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs FC Rostov part of?
Akhmat vs FC Rostov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 22) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 47% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Akhmat and FC Rostov will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Akhmat vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Akhmat's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against FC Rostov's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.94x) against Akhmat's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Akhmat's last 51 games and FC Rostov's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.57
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.23
0.90
FC Rostov xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
7%
15.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Akhmat vs FC Rostov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Akhmat and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Akhmat and 0.90 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Akhmat's recent record stands at 12W 17D 22L from 51 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five.
FC Rostov, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 20L across 51 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Akhmat against 1.20 for FC Rostov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 10W 8D 7L from their last 25 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Akhmat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Rostov's away record stands at 7W 7D 11L across their last 25 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Akhmat are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.14 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
Akhmat (Home) vs FC Rostov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Akhmat
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ Akhmat vs FC Rostov Form FAQs
What form are Akhmat and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 12W 17D 22L in their last 51 games (1.04 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 15W 16D 20L in their last 51 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or FC Rostov away?
Akhmat's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.52 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Akhmat and FC Rostov, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Akhmat have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Rostov won FC Rostov 3-0 Akhmat on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 4W 1D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Akhmat
2
Draws
3
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Akhmat vs FC Rostov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and FC Rostov?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Akhmat have won 5, FC Rostov have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and FC Rostov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Akhmat 4-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and FC Rostov?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 56%, FC Rostov 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Akhmat) and 44% (FC Rostov).
On the defensive side: Akhmat keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Rostov in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Akhmat vs FC Rostov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Akhmat and FC Rostov matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Akhmat's games and 56% of FC Rostov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Akhmat and FC Rostov matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Akhmat's recent games and 44% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and FC Rostov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Akhmat's recent matches and 68% of FC Rostov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Akhmat edge out FC Rostov 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat FC Rostov 1-0 at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.34 xG and FC Rostov 0.90 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Rostov landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against FC Rostov attack 0.94 / defence 0.91, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 47% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 25%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 47%, FC Rostov 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Rostov's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.04 PPG, FC Rostov 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.