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Prediction vindicated as Akhmat edge out CSKA Moscow 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akhmat beat CSKA Moscow 1-0 at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.41 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.10 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akhmat 44% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 29%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 48%, CSKA Moscow 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akhmat's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Akhmat winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights