Akhmat 0-0 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akhmat at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akhmat vs Baltika fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Akhmat host Baltika at Akhmat-Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Akhmat stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat at Akhmat-Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Akhmat are significantly better at Akhmat-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Baltika — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Akhmat 1.10 PPG, Baltika 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Akhmat register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Baltika in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Baltika, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Akhmat.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Baltika have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Baltika in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 59% versus Baltika 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Akhmat 41% | Baltika 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.67 xG and Baltika 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 1.304 / defence 1.143 | Baltika attack 1.095 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.314. Akhmat carry an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Akhmat games / 39 Baltika games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 37% | Draw 27% | Baltika 36%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Baltika 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Akhmat are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akhmat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Akhmat 60% | Baltika 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Akhmat-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 37% | Draw 27% | Baltika 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 68% | xG Akhmat 1.67 / Baltika 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 1.304 / def 1.143 | Baltika attack 1.095 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Baltika xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Baltika kick off?
Akhmat vs Baltika kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Akhmat-Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Baltika?
Akhmat 0 - 0 Baltika.
Where is Akhmat vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat-Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Baltika part of?
Akhmat vs Baltika is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 37% chance of winning, Baltika a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Akhmat and Baltika will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Baltika?
Record (4 meetings): Akhmat 0W | Draws 1 | Baltika 3W.
What form are Akhmat and Baltika in?
Akhmat (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Baltika (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Akhmat's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Baltika's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
37%
2.72
27%
3.66
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Akhmat xG
Total xG
3.31
1.64
Baltika xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
7%
14.06
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.64 for Baltika, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Baltika?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Akhmat's recent record stands at 11W 14D 14L from 39 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baltika, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 10L across 39 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Akhmat on 1.21 PPG, Baltika on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 10W 4D 5L from 19 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Akhmat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Baltika's away record stands at 6W 9D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Akhmat are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 1.33 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Baltika in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
Baltika
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Baltika in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 11W 14D 14L in their last 39 games (1.21 PPG), while Baltika have gone 14W 15D 10L in their last 39 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Baltika away?
Akhmat's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.79 PPG; Baltika away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Akhmat or Baltika been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Baltika in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Akhmat and Baltika runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Baltika won 1-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Akhmat's record when hosting Baltika specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Akhmat
2
Draws
3
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Baltika?
From 5 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 0, Baltika have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Baltika last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Akhmat 0-0 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Baltika?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 58%, Baltika 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Akhmat) and 37% (Baltika).
On the defensive side: Akhmat keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Baltika in 42%; Baltika in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Baltika?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Akhmat's recent matches and 42% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akhmat vs Baltika usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Akhmat's recent games and 37% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Baltika tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Baltika in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Akhmat's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 10, as Akhmat and Baltika drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.67 xG and Baltika 1.64 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Akhmat fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Baltika landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 1.30 / defence 1.14 against Baltika attack 1.09 / defence 0.94, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 37% | Draw 27% | Baltika 36%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 41%, Baltika 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baltika's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.21 PPG, Baltika 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Akhmat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.