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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Akhmat run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Akron.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akhmat beat Akron 3-0 at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.40 xG and Akron 1.20 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Akhmat beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Akron landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.93 / defence 0.86 against Akron attack 1.10 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akhmat 39% | Draw 31% | Akron 30%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 46%, Akron 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akhmat's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Akron's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Akhmat 0.97 PPG, Akron 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Akron (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights