Vitória SC 1-1 Farense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vitória SC at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitória SC vs Farense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitória SC host Farense at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in Primeira Liga (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Vitória SC — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Vitória SC have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Farense stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Farense away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Vitória SC have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Vitória SC have won 1, Farense 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Vitória SC 2–1 Farense — a Vitória SC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vitória SC trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Farense trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitória SC 54% versus Farense 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitória SC 54% | Farense 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitória SC 1.87 xG and Farense 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitória SC attack 1.064 / defence 0.836 | Farense attack 0.901 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.268. Data: built from Vitória SC's last 62 games and Farense's last 28.
Result probabilities: Vitória SC 58% | Draw 23% | Farense 18%. Fair-value odds: Vitória SC 1.71 | Draw 4.34 | Farense 5.41. The model has a clear lean to Vitória SC (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitória SC are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vitória SC's last 10 home games and Farense's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vitória SC 40% (last 10 home games) | Farense 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitória SC vs Farense | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitória SC 58% | Draw 23% | Farense 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Vitória SC 1.87 / Farense 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Vitória SC attack 1.064 / def 0.836 | Farense attack 0.901 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Vitória SC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Vitória SC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Farense xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vitória SC vs Farense FAQs
What time does Vitória SC vs Farense kick off?
Vitória SC vs Farense kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Vitória SC vs Farense?
Vitória SC 1 - 1 Farense.
Where is Vitória SC vs Farense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Vitória SC vs Farense part of?
Vitória SC vs Farense is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vitória SC vs Farense?
Our statistical model gives Vitória SC a 58% chance of winning, Farense a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vitória SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitória SC vs Farense?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Vitória SC and Farense will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vitória SC vs Farense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vitória SC's attack at 1.06x the league average against Farense's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Farense's attack versus Vitória SC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vitória SC's last 62 games and Farense's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitória SC Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.34
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Vitória SC xG
Total xG
2.83
0.96
Farense xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
15%
6.50
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
35.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vitória SC vs Farense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitória SC vs Farense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Vitória SC and Farense expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Vitória SC and 0.96 for Farense, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitória SC vs Farense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitória SC come into this having played 28 games, going 17W 5D 6L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Farense sit at 1.07 PPG from 28 outings (8W 6D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Vitória SC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Farense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vitória SC's home form reads 10W 1D 3L across their last 14 home games, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Farense have taken 0.79 points per game from their last 14 away games (3W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitória SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitória SC are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Farense are on 1.32 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitória SC
Current Season
Farense
Current Season
Vitória SC (Home) vs Farense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vitória SC
Current Season
Farense
Current Season
❓ Vitória SC vs Farense Form FAQs
What form are Vitória SC and Farense in coming into this match?
Vitória SC have gone 17W 5D 6L in their last 28 games (2.00 PPG), while Farense have gone 8W 6D 14L in their last 28 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitória SC at home or Farense away?
Vitória SC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitória SC at home: 2.21 PPG; Farense away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Vitória SC or Farense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitória SC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Farense in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2023. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 11 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Vitória SC's record when hosting Farense specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vitória SC
2
Draws
1
Farense
Recent Meetings
❓ Vitória SC vs Farense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vitória SC and Farense?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Vitória SC have won 1, Farense have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitória SC and Farense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2025: Vitória SC 1-2 Farense.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitória SC 50%, Farense 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Vitória SC and 64% for Farense. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitória SC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Farense in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitória SC home games / Farense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vitória SC vs Farense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vitória SC and Farense matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Vitória SC's games and 71% of Farense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Vitória SC and Farense matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Vitória SC's matches and 64% of Farense's.
Do Vitória SC and Farense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Vitória SC's recent matches and 71% of Farense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitória SC and Farense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitória SC and Farense finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitória SC 1.87 xG and Farense 0.96 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Vitória SC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitória SC attack 1.06 / defence 0.84 against Farense attack 0.90 / defence 1.19, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitória SC 58% | Draw 23% | Farense 18%, with Vitória SC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitória SC 54%, Farense 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitória SC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Farense's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitória SC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vitória SC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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