GIL Vicente 0-4 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sporting CP (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as GIL Vicente face Sporting CP.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIL Vicente and Sporting CP meet at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 April 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GIL Vicente have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
GIL Vicente's home record at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sporting CP's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Sporting CP have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sporting CP arrive in superior form — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GIL Vicente have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sporting CP in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Sporting CP, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Sporting CP winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sporting CP have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sporting CP goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 51% versus Sporting CP 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 48% | Sporting CP 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.07 xG and Sporting CP 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.812 / defence 0.931 | Sporting CP attack 1.501 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.250. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.501 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 GIL Vicente games / 61 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 23% | Draw 24% | Sporting CP 53%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Sporting CP 1.89. Sporting CP hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sporting CP if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 60% | Sporting CP 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 23% | Draw 24% | Sporting CP 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG GIL Vicente 1.07 / Sporting CP 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.812 / def 0.931 | Sporting CP attack 1.501 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Sporting CP xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 12 April 2024 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP?
GIL Vicente 0 - 4 Sporting CP.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP part of?
GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 23% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both GIL Vicente and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Sporting CP?
Record (5 meetings): GIL Vicente 0W | Draws 1 | Sporting CP 4W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Sporting CP in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Sporting CP (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (0.81) and Sporting CP's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (1.50x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 62/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
23%
4.39
24%
4.10
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.81
1.75
Sporting CP xG
4.39
23%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
4%
25.16
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.75 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 16W 14D 31L from 61 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Sporting CP, meanwhile, have gone 46W 7D 8L across 61 games — 2.38 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sporting CP by 1.36 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIL Vicente heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, GIL Vicente have managed 10W 12D 8L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sporting CP's away record stands at 19W 5D 6L across 30 trips, a 2.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.46 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Current Season
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 16W 14D 31L in their last 61 games (1.02 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 46W 7D 8L in their last 61 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.40 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.07 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 0-4 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
GIL Vicente
3
Draws
7
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Sporting CP?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 0, Sporting CP have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Sporting CP 3-0 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 47%, Sporting CP 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (GIL Vicente) and 67% (Sporting CP).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sporting CP in 33%; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Sporting CP?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 57% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 67% of Sporting CP's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Sporting CP tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 0-4 hammering of GIL Vicente.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat GIL Vicente 0-4 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.07 xG and Sporting CP 1.75 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sporting CP outscored their 1.75 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against Sporting CP attack 1.50 / defence 0.88, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 23% | Draw 24% | Sporting CP 53%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 48%, Sporting CP 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sporting CP's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.