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Stalemate at Torreense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Manuel Marques, Final, as Torreense and Casa Pia drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Torreense 1.39 xG and Casa Pia 0.97 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Torreense fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Casa Pia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torreense attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Casa Pia attack 0.75 / defence 1.12, drawn from 0/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Torreense 46% | Draw 27% | Casa Pia 26%, with Torreense to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights