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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Final

Kick-off

Wed 20 May 2026

18:00

Venue

Estadio Manuel Marques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Torreense Win

46%

Torreense

2.15

27%

Draw

3.68

26%

Casa Pia

3.80

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.1%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.7%

Draw

0 – 0

9.5%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.39

Torreense xG

Total xG

2.36

0.97

Casa Pia xG

46%
27%
26%
TorreenseDrawCasa Pia

2.15

46%

Home win

3.68

27%

Draw

3.80

26%

Away win

Goals Markets

68%

Over 1.5

1.47

32%

Under 1.5

3.12

42%

Over 2.5

2.38

58%

Under 2.5

1.72

21%

Over 3.5

4.76

79%

Under 3.5

1.27

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

47%

BTTS Yes

2.15

53%

BTTS No

1.87

Clean Sheet

38%

Torreense

2.64

25%

Casa Pia

4.00

Win to Nil

18%

Torreense

5.68

7%

Casa Pia

15.19

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.5 9.2 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.1
1 13.1 12.7 6.2 2.0 0.5 0.1
2 9.1 8.8 4.3 1.4 0.3 0.1
3 4.2 4.1 2.0 0.6 0.2
4 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.386
λ Away (xG) 0.970
Total xG 2.356
League avg home goals 1.454
League avg away goals 1.129
Torreense attack strength 0.850
Torreense defence strength 1.150
Casa Pia attack strength 0.747
Casa Pia defence strength 1.121
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 0 / 68