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Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Tondela 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat Tondela 0-1 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 0.98 xG and SC Braga 1.92 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tondela fell 1.0 short of their projected output. SC Braga landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.75 / defence 1.19 against SC Braga attack 1.28 / defence 0.91, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tondela 19% | Draw 22% | SC Braga 59%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 59%, SC Braga 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tondela's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Braga's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. SC Braga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights