🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Tondela and Santa Clara share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 24, as Tondela and Santa Clara drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 0.90 xG and Santa Clara 0.92 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Tondela beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Santa Clara outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.62 / defence 1.01 against Santa Clara attack 0.77 / defence 0.94, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tondela 33% | Draw 33% | Santa Clara 34%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 52%, Santa Clara 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tondela's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.

Santa Clara's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tondela 0.78 PPG, Santa Clara 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tondela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights