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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 24

Kick-off

Sun 1 Mar 2026

15:30

Venue

Estádio João Cardoso

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santa Clara Win

33%

Tondela

3.05

33%

Draw

3.02

34%

Santa Clara

2.93

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 0

16.3%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

15.0%

Away win

1 – 0

14.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.90

Tondela xG

Total xG

1.82

0.92

Santa Clara xG

33%
33%
34%
TondelaDrawSanta Clara

3.05

33%

Home win

3.02

33%

Draw

2.93

34%

Away win

Goals Markets

54%

Over 1.5

1.85

46%

Under 1.5

2.17

27%

Over 2.5

3.70

73%

Under 2.5

1.37

11%

Over 3.5

9.09

89%

Under 3.5

1.12

4%

Over 4.5

25.00

96%

Under 4.5

1.04

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

36%

BTTS Yes

2.79

64%

BTTS No

1.56

Clean Sheet

40%

Tondela

2.51

41%

Santa Clara

2.45

Win to Nil

13%

Tondela

7.65

14%

Santa Clara

7.18

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 16.3 15.0 6.9 2.1 0.5 0.1
1 14.6 13.4 6.2 1.9 0.4 0.1
2 6.5 6.0 2.8 0.8 0.2
3 2.0 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.896
λ Away (xG) 0.920
Total xG 1.816
League avg home goals 1.537
League avg away goals 1.190
Tondela attack strength 0.623
Tondela defence strength 1.010
Santa Clara attack strength 0.766
Santa Clara defence strength 0.935
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 23 / 57