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Nacional cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Tondela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nacional beat Tondela 0-2 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 1.00 xG and Nacional 0.95 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Tondela fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Nacional outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.68 / defence 1.11 against Nacional attack 0.76 / defence 1.01, drawn from 29/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tondela 36% | Draw 31% | Nacional 33%, with Tondela to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Nacional win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 52%, Nacional 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tondela's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nacional's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tondela 0.72 PPG, Nacional 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nacional win broke the near-deadlock. Nacional (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights