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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tondela and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tondela and GIL Vicente finished level at 2-2 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 0.91 xG and GIL Vicente 1.13 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Tondela beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GIL Vicente outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.58 / defence 1.03 against GIL Vicente attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 27/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tondela 29% | Draw 30% | GIL Vicente 41%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 52%, GIL Vicente 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tondela's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tondela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights