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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Porto cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Tondela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Tondela 0-2 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 0.53 xG and FC Porto 1.95 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.60 / defence 1.14 against FC Porto attack 1.30 / defence 0.67, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tondela 9% | Draw 20% | FC Porto 71%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 58%, FC Porto 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tondela's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Porto's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.83 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights