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Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Tondela 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Tondela 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 1.29 xG and Famalicao 1.38 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tondela fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Famalicao attack 1.03 / defence 1.07, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Tondela 34% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 39%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 100%, Famalicao 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Famalicao arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Tondela conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Famalicao managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.