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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tondela and Estoril share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tondela and Estoril finished level at 2-2 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 1.20 xG and Estoril 1.60 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.71 / defence 1.10 against Estoril attack 1.18 / defence 1.22, drawn from 3/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tondela 29% | Draw 25% | Estoril 47%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 67%, Estoril 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tondela's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.

Estoril's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tondela scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights