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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sporting CP and Tondela share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP and Tondela finished level at 2-2 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 3.00 xG and Tondela 0.72 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sporting CP fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Tondela outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.51 / defence 0.87 against Tondela attack 0.73 / defence 1.35, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 83% | Draw 11% | Tondela 6%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 83%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 67%, Tondela 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Tondela's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tondela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights