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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sporting CP and SC Braga share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 8, as Sporting CP and SC Braga drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.77 xG and SC Braga 1.12 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.54 / defence 0.80 against SC Braga attack 1.16 / defence 0.87, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 52% | Draw 25% | SC Braga 23%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 68%, SC Braga 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

SC Braga's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights