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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sun 5 Oct 2025

19:15

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

52%

Sporting CP

1.93

25%

Draw

3.98

23%

SC Braga

4.33

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.8%

Home win

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.77

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

2.89

1.12

SC Braga xG

52%
25%
23%
Sporting CPDrawSC Braga

1.93

52%

Home win

3.98

25%

Draw

4.33

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.76

43%

BTTS No

2.32

Clean Sheet

33%

Sporting CP

3.06

17%

SC Braga

5.89

Win to Nil

17%

Sporting CP

5.92

4%

SC Braga

25.49

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.5 6.2 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.1
1 9.8 11.0 6.2 2.3 0.6 0.1
2 8.7 9.8 5.5 2.0 0.6 0.1
3 5.1 5.8 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1
4 2.3 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1
5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.773
λ Away (xG) 1.120
Total xG 2.893
League avg home goals 1.327
League avg away goals 1.209
Sporting CP attack strength 1.539
Sporting CP defence strength 0.796
SC Braga attack strength 1.164
SC Braga defence strength 0.868
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 41 / 41