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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sporting CP and SC Braga share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 28, as Sporting CP and SC Braga drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.37 xG and SC Braga 1.03 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.46 / defence 0.87 against SC Braga attack 0.99 / defence 0.72, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 45% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 28%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 75%, SC Braga 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

SC Braga's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 2.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.97 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights