Sporting CP 2-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sporting CP at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sporting CP vs Maritimo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sporting CP and Maritimo meet at Estádio José Alvalade in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sporting CP have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sporting CP's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Estádio José Alvalade this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Alvalade.
Maritimo's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Maritimo's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Sporting CP's favour (2.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Sporting CP 1W, Maritimo 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Maritimo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Sporting CP — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Maritimo — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 43% versus Maritimo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 58% | Maritimo 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 2.62 xG and Maritimo 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.440 / defence 0.797 | Maritimo attack 0.807 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.067. Sporting CP carry an above-average attack strength of 1.440 — their λ of 2.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Sporting CP's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sporting CP's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Sporting CP games / 65 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 79% | Draw 14% | Maritimo 7%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 1.27 | Draw 7.14 | Maritimo 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sporting CP at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sporting CP 40% | Maritimo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 79% | Draw 14% | Maritimo 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 46% | xG Sporting CP 2.62 / Maritimo 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.440 / def 0.797 | Maritimo attack 0.807 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Maritimo xG
46%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sporting CP vs Maritimo kick off?
Sporting CP vs Maritimo kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Maritimo?
Sporting CP 2 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Sporting CP vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Maritimo part of?
Sporting CP vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 79% chance of winning, Maritimo a 7% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sporting CP and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Sporting CP vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Maritimo?
Record (3 meetings): Sporting CP 1W | Draws 1 | Maritimo 1W.
What form are Sporting CP and Maritimo in?
Sporting CP (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Maritimo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.44x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 2.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.81x) against Sporting CP's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
79%
1.27
14%
7.19
7%
13.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
3.30
0.69
Maritimo xG
1.27
79%
Home win
7.19
14%
Draw
13.42
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
7%
13.71
Win to Nil
40%
2.52
1%
184.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Sporting CP and 0.69 for Maritimo, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Maritimo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sporting CP come into this having played 65 games, going 48W 8D 9L for 2.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Maritimo sit at 0.94 PPG from 65 outings (15W 16D 34L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Maritimo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sporting CP's home form reads 26W 2D 4L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Maritimo have taken 0.78 points per game from 32 outings (6W 7D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sporting CP are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.05 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Current Season
Maritimo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sporting CP and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 48W 8D 9L in their last 65 games (2.34 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 15W 16D 34L in their last 65 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Maritimo away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.50 PPG; Maritimo away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Maritimo in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sporting CP have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sporting CP
1
Draws
1
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Sporting CP have won 2, Maritimo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Sporting CP 2-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Sporting CP and Maritimo?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 66% of the time.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 31%, Maritimo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sporting CP) and 53% (Maritimo).
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Maritimo in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sporting CP play Maritimo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 56% of Maritimo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sporting CP vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sporting CP's recent games and 53% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sporting CP and Maritimo tend to score early?
Sporting CP have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Maritimo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Maritimo 2-1 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 2.62 xG and Maritimo 0.69 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.44 / defence 0.80 against Maritimo attack 0.81 / defence 1.38, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 79% | Draw 14% | Maritimo 7%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 79%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 58%, Maritimo 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Maritimo's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.