Portimonense 1-5 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Portimonense vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Portimonense host Benfica at Estádio Municipal de Portimão in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Portimonense — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Portimonense have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estádio Municipal de Portimão — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Benfica have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benfica — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Portimonense, 2 for Benfica and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Benfica winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Portimonense in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Benfica in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portimonense 37% versus Benfica 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portimonense 35% | Benfica 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 0.62 xG and Benfica 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.799 / defence 0.956 | Benfica attack 1.324 / defence 0.588. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.035. Portimonense's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 0.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Benfica's defence strength of 0.588 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — the away xG of 1.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Portimonense games / 65 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 18% | Draw 29% | Benfica 54%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 5.56 | Draw 3.45 | Benfica 1.85. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Portimonense's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Portimonense 50% | Benfica 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 18% | Draw 29% | Benfica 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 34% | xG Portimonense 0.62 / Benfica 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.799 / def 0.956 | Benfica attack 1.324 / def 0.588 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Benfica (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.62
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Benfica xG
34%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Benfica kick off?
Portimonense vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Benfica?
Portimonense 1 - 5 Benfica.
Where is Portimonense vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Benfica part of?
Portimonense vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 18% chance of winning, Benfica a 54% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Portimonense and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Benfica?
Record (3 meetings): Portimonense 1W | Draws 0 | Benfica 2W.
What form are Portimonense and Benfica in?
Portimonense (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Benfica (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Portimonense's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Benfica's defensive record (0.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.62. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Portimonense's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 17.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
18%
5.71
29%
3.46
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.62
Portimonense xG
Total xG
1.93
1.31
Benfica xG
5.71
18%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
54%
1.85
Win to Nil
5%
21.15
29%
3.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 19.1 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.62 expected goals for Portimonense and 1.31 for Benfica, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Portimonense's recent record stands at 20W 12D 33L from 65 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 49W 7D 9L across 65 games — 2.37 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.26 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Portimonense heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Portimonense have managed 10W 7D 15L from 32 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 25W 3D 4L across 32 trips, a 2.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Portimonense are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.31 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Current Season
Benfica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Benfica in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 20W 12D 33L in their last 65 games (1.11 PPG), while Benfica have gone 49W 7D 9L in their last 65 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 1.16 PPG; Benfica away: 2.44 PPG.
Have Portimonense or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Benfica in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Benfica go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when Benfica won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Portimonense's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Portimonense
0
Draws
5
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Benfica?
From 6 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 1, Benfica have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Benfica 4-0 Portimonense.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portimonense 47%, Benfica 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Portimonense) and 50% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 62%; Portimonense have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Portimonense's recent matches and 31% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Portimonense's recent games and 50% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and Benfica tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Benfica in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Portimonense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Portimonense 1-5 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 0.62 xG and Benfica 1.31 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.31 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against Benfica attack 1.32 / defence 0.59, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 18% | Draw 29% | Benfica 54%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 35%, Benfica 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Benfica's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Portimonense (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.