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Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Guimaraes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Guimaraes 5-1 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 2.28 xG and Guimaraes 0.96 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Sporting CP beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.45 / defence 0.96 against Guimaraes attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 67% | Draw 18% | Guimaraes 14%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 68%, Guimaraes 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Guimaraes's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.59 average — above their attacking norm. Guimaraes (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights