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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 32

Kick-off

Mon 4 May 2026

20:15

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

67%

Sporting CP

1.49

18%

Draw

5.41

14%

Guimaraes

6.91

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

10.2%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

1 – 0

8.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.28

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

3.24

0.96

Guimaraes xG

67%
18%
14%
Sporting CPDrawGuimaraes

1.49

67%

Home win

5.41

18%

Draw

6.91

14%

Away win

Goals Markets

83%

Over 1.5

1.20

17%

Under 1.5

5.88

63%

Over 2.5

1.59

37%

Under 2.5

2.70

41%

Over 3.5

2.44

59%

Under 3.5

1.69

23%

Over 4.5

4.35

77%

Under 4.5

1.30

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.80

44%

BTTS No

2.25

Clean Sheet

38%

Sporting CP

2.62

10%

Guimaraes

9.80

Win to Nil

26%

Sporting CP

3.90

1%

Guimaraes

67.65

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.9 3.8 1.8 0.6 0.1
1 8.9 8.6 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.1
2 10.2 9.8 4.7 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 7.7 7.4 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 4.4 4.2 2.0 0.7 0.2
5 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.282
λ Away (xG) 0.962
Total xG 3.244
League avg home goals 1.443
League avg away goals 1.146
Sporting CP attack strength 1.453
Sporting CP defence strength 0.958
Guimaraes attack strength 0.877
Guimaraes defence strength 1.088
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 65 / 65