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Sporting CP cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Guimaraes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Guimaraes 2-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.66 xG and Guimaraes 1.06 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Guimaraes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.43 / defence 0.88 against Guimaraes attack 0.99 / defence 0.90, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 51% | Draw 24% | Guimaraes 24%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 73%, Guimaraes 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Guimaraes's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights