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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out GIL Vicente 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat GIL Vicente 2-1 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.92 xG and GIL Vicente 1.06 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.46 / defence 0.88 against GIL Vicente attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 57% | Draw 22% | GIL Vicente 21%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 74%, GIL Vicente 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights