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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 32

Kick-off

Sun 4 May 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

57%

Sporting CP

1.74

22%

Draw

4.53

21%

GIL Vicente

4.87

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.4%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.9%

Home win

1 – 0

9.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.92

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

2.98

1.06

GIL Vicente xG

57%
22%
21%
Sporting CPDrawGIL Vicente

1.74

57%

Home win

4.53

22%

Draw

4.87

21%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

57%

Over 2.5

1.75

43%

Under 2.5

2.33

35%

Over 3.5

2.86

65%

Under 3.5

1.54

18%

Over 4.5

5.56

82%

Under 4.5

1.22

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.80

44%

BTTS No

2.26

Clean Sheet

35%

Sporting CP

2.88

15%

GIL Vicente

6.80

Win to Nil

20%

Sporting CP

5.02

3%

GIL Vicente

33.09

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.1 5.4 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
1 9.8 10.4 5.5 1.9 0.5 0.1
2 9.4 9.9 5.2 1.9 0.5 0.1
3 6.0 6.3 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.1
4 2.9 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.1
5 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.917
λ Away (xG) 1.058
Total xG 2.975
League avg home goals 1.275
League avg away goals 1.200
Sporting CP attack strength 1.461
Sporting CP defence strength 0.884
GIL Vicente attack strength 0.997
GIL Vicente defence strength 1.029
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 65 / 65