🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sporting CP cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Famalicao.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Famalicao 3-1 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.96 xG and Famalicao 1.14 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sporting CP beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.41 / defence 0.91 against Famalicao attack 1.13 / defence 1.05, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 56% | Draw 22% | Famalicao 22%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 75%, Famalicao 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Famalicao's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights