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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Sat 15 Mar 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

56%

Sporting CP

1.78

22%

Draw

4.58

22%

Famalicao

4.58

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.1%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.9%

Home win

1 – 0

8.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.96

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

3.10

1.14

Famalicao xG

56%
22%
22%
Sporting CPDrawFamalicao

1.78

56%

Home win

4.58

22%

Draw

4.58

22%

Away win

Goals Markets

82%

Over 1.5

1.22

18%

Under 1.5

5.56

60%

Over 2.5

1.67

40%

Under 2.5

2.50

37%

Over 3.5

2.70

63%

Under 3.5

1.59

20%

Over 4.5

5.00

80%

Under 4.5

1.25

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.71

42%

BTTS No

2.41

Clean Sheet

32%

Sporting CP

3.13

14%

Famalicao

7.08

Win to Nil

18%

Sporting CP

5.56

3%

Famalicao

32.41

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.5 5.2 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1
1 8.8 10.1 5.8 2.2 0.6 0.1
2 8.6 9.9 5.6 2.1 0.6 0.1
3 5.6 6.4 3.7 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 2.8 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.2
5 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.957
λ Away (xG) 1.141
Total xG 3.098
League avg home goals 1.323
League avg away goals 1.113
Sporting CP attack strength 1.407
Sporting CP defence strength 0.905
Famalicao attack strength 1.133
Famalicao defence strength 1.051
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 59 / 59