🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Estoril.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Estoril 3-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 2.75 xG and Estoril 1.00 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Estoril landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.41 / defence 0.64 against Estoril attack 1.30 / defence 1.25, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 74% | Draw 15% | Estoril 11%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 67%, Estoril 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Estoril's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.39. That form edge translated into the three points. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights