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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 24

Kick-off

Fri 27 Feb 2026

20:45

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

74%

Sporting CP

1.35

15%

Draw

6.70

11%

Estoril

8.94

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

8.9%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 1

8.9%

Home win

3 – 1

8.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.75

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

3.75

1.00

Estoril xG

74%
15%
Sporting CPDrawEstoril

1.35

74%

Home win

6.70

15%

Draw

8.94

11%

Away win

Goals Markets

89%

Over 1.5

1.12

11%

Under 1.5

9.09

72%

Over 2.5

1.39

28%

Under 2.5

3.57

52%

Over 3.5

1.92

48%

Under 3.5

2.08

32%

Over 4.5

3.12

68%

Under 4.5

1.47

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.69

41%

BTTS No

2.46

Clean Sheet

37%

Sporting CP

2.73

6%

Estoril

15.63

Win to Nil

27%

Sporting CP

3.69

1%

Estoril

139.78

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.3 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1
1 6.4 6.5 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.1
2 8.9 8.9 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 8.1 8.2 4.1 1.4 0.3 0.1
4 5.6 5.6 2.8 0.9 0.2
5 3.1 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.749
λ Away (xG) 1.004
Total xG 3.753
League avg home goals 1.557
League avg away goals 1.211
Sporting CP attack strength 1.412
Sporting CP defence strength 0.638
Estoril attack strength 1.301
Estoril defence strength 1.250
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 57 / 57