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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sporting CP cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Estoril.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Estoril 3-1 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 2.26 xG and Estoril 1.34 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.36 / defence 0.92 against Estoril attack 1.30 / defence 1.23, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 58% | Draw 20% | Estoril 22%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 74%, Estoril 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Estoril's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights