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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 24

Kick-off

Mon 3 Mar 2025

20:15

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

58%

Sporting CP

1.73

20%

Draw

4.88

22%

Estoril

4.60

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.3%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

8.3%

Draw

3 – 1

7.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.26

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

3.61

1.34

Estoril xG

58%
20%
22%
Sporting CPDrawEstoril

1.73

58%

Home win

4.88

20%

Draw

4.60

22%

Away win

Goals Markets

88%

Over 1.5

1.14

12%

Under 1.5

8.33

70%

Over 2.5

1.43

30%

Under 2.5

3.33

49%

Over 3.5

2.04

51%

Under 3.5

1.96

30%

Over 4.5

3.33

70%

Under 4.5

1.43

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

67%

BTTS Yes

1.50

33%

BTTS No

2.99

Clean Sheet

26%

Sporting CP

3.84

10%

Estoril

9.61

Win to Nil

15%

Sporting CP

6.64

2%

Estoril

44.25

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.7 3.6 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1
1 6.1 8.3 5.5 2.5 0.8 0.2
2 6.9 9.3 6.3 2.8 0.9 0.3
3 5.2 7.0 4.7 2.1 0.7 0.2
4 3.0 4.0 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1
5 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.263
λ Away (xG) 1.345
Total xG 3.608
League avg home goals 1.346
League avg away goals 1.125
Sporting CP attack strength 1.362
Sporting CP defence strength 0.919
Estoril attack strength 1.301
Estoril defence strength 1.234
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 57 / 57