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Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Casa Pia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Casa Pia 3-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 2.97 xG and Casa Pia 0.70 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.66 / defence 0.60 against Casa Pia attack 0.92 / defence 1.24, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 83% | Draw 11% | Casa Pia 6%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 83%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 67%, Casa Pia 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Casa Pia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights